
Decision Making & Probability

Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
The foundational work on cognitive biases and dual-process theory. System 1 vs System 2 thinking.

Noise
Kahneman, Sibony & Sunstein
Why variability in human judgment causes errors across medicine, law, and business decisions.

Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
How we mistake luck for skill. Essential reading on probability and risk perception.

Thinking in Bets
Annie Duke
Poker champion’s guide to making better decisions under uncertainty. Separate outcomes from process.

The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver
Why most predictions fail. Case studies from elections, sports, weather, and finance.

On the Edge
Nate Silver (2024)
The hidden world of risk-takers: poker players, hedge fund titans, crypto speculators, and AI bettors.
Michael Lewis Collection

Moneyball
Michael Lewis
How the Oakland A’s used data analytics to compete against bigger budgets. Changed sports forever.

The Undoing Project
Michael Lewis
The friendship between Kahneman and Tversky that revolutionized how we understand the mind.

Going Infinite
Michael Lewis
The rise and fall of Sam Bankman-Fried and the FTX crypto empire.